Blinken Urges Hamas to Accept Hostage Deal

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at new efforts to secure an Israeli cease-fire in Gaza, Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf’s resignation, and parliamentary elections in Togo.

Hostage Diplomacy in Riyadh

Senior U.S. and Arab officials convened on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday to discuss possible solutions to the Israel-Hamas war, including a cease-fire deal. “In this moment, the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and cease-fire is Hamas,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. The White House has previously criticized the group’s reluctance to budge on hostage negotiations. Blinken is expected to visit Israel later this week.

The current truce proposal would have Hamas release about 33 captives being held in Gaza in exchange for numerous Palestinian prisoners and a roughly 40-day truce, in line with previous calls for a six-week cease-fire. The first round of hostages would consist of women, children, older adults, and those with serious medical conditions. This is “extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel,” Blinken said on Monday. Earlier conversations centered on a deal for 40 hostages, but Hamas has since indicated that it may not have 40 living captives that fit these criteria.

The second phase of the proposed truce would include a “period of sustained calm” in a bid to appease Hamas’s demands for a permanent cease-fire. Hamas negotiators met with Qatari and Egyptian mediators in Cairo on Monday to deliver a response to the phased proposal.

This is Blinken’s seventh trip to the Middle East since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari delegations also discussed Israel’s impending offensive on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The most “important thing now is to avoid an attack on Rafah,” Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, who also attended the forum, said on Monday, saying such an assault would be “catastrophic.” On Sunday alone, at least 22 people, including six women and five children, were killed in three separate Israeli strikes on Rafah, local authorities reported.

Some U.S. officials reportedly believe that Israel is not ready to launch a full-scale ground incursion on Rafah, thereby creating a critical window to secure a cease-fire. U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated the White House’s opposition to a Rafah offensive during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday. But key far-right members in Netanyahu’s cabinet have urged him to ignore international calls for a cease-fire. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened on Sunday to undermine Netanyahu’s government if he accepts the truce proposal, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened on Saturday to withdraw from Netanyahu’s government if Israel does not invade Rafah.

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The World This Week

Tuesday, April 30: Georgian parliamentarians hold the second reading of a controversial “foreign agents” bill.

The International Court of Justice begins a two-day hearing into Mexico’s case against Ecuador regarding an embassy raid. The court also rules on Nicaragua’s request for provisional measures against Germany for supplying Israel with weapons.

Thursday, May 2: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visits Lebanon.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development begins its two-day annual ministers’ meeting in Paris.

England and Wales hold local and mayoral elections.

Saturday, May 4: Leaders from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation gather in Gambia for a two-day summit.

Haiti’s state of emergency is set to expire.

Sunday, May 5: Panama holds general elections.

Monday, May 6: Chad holds its presidential election.

What We’re Following

Yousaf’s bad gamble. Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf resigned on Monday ahead of two scheduled votes of no confidence this week that he was expected to lose. Yousaf served for barely a year as Scotland’s first non-white, and Muslim, leader.

Earlier this month, Yousaf’s Scottish National Party (SNP) backtracked on a climate pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent by 2030, enraging the Scottish Greens. The Greens planned to discuss whether to stay in the SNP’s governing coalition, but in a preemptive move last week, Yousaf ended their power-sharing agreement. (This agreement had allowed the SNP to retain power in 2021 after it failed to win an outright majority.) In response, the Greens vowed to back a no-confidence vote against Yousaf. Parliament now has 28 days to find a successor via a majority vote or otherwise call an election.

Also on Monday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that he will stay in office after declaring last week that he would retreat from public duties to help decide whether he should remain in power. “I have decided to go on, if possible even stronger as prime minister,” Sánchez said. “This is not business as usual. Things are going to be different.” His announcement last week came on the heels of a corruption investigation into his wife, which Sánchez has accused far-right opponents of orchestrating.

Togo votes. Togo held parliamentary elections on Monday that could extend President Faure Gnassingbé’s 19-year hold on power. In April, lawmakers approved a constitutional amendment that alters the executive office. Under that ruling, parliament, rather than the Togolese directly, would select a one-term ceremonial president. To oversee policy, the largest party’s leader would serve in a new, all-powerful position described as the president of the council of ministers. This new position would not have term limits. The referendum is close to being enacted.

If the ruling Union for the Republic party secures a majority in Monday’s vote, which is considered likely, then experts believe that it will appoint Gnassingbé to serve as the new council of ministers’ president—allowing Gnassingbé to potentially extend his rule for life. Togo’s second-largest party, the Union of Forces of Change, is also allied with the current president.

Analysts fear that splintered factions within the opposition have weakened its ability to counter Gnassingbé despite its members successfully delaying the election twice. Authorities cracked down on protests ahead of the vote, and the nation’s electoral commission barred the Catholic Church from deploying observers. Officials closed Togo’s borders on Monday for security reasons and dispatched around 12,000 officers.

Disaster hits Kenya. Flooding killed at least 71 people near Mai Mahiu, Kenya, and injured more than 110 others, authorities confirmed on Monday. Police initially blamed a burst dam; however, the Ministry of Water later said a river tunnel blocked by debris caused the flash floods. Search and rescue efforts are ongoing, Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki said.

Heavy rains in Kenya have killed more than 140 people and displaced over 185,000 others in recent weeks, with close to 10,000 people forced to flee Nairobi alone. Other East African countries, including Tanzania and Burundi, have faced similar downpours and landslides. Senior Kenyan officials fear that the death toll could increase in the coming days.

Odds and Ends

Pope Francis visited Venice, Italy, on Sunday with a directive for young people: Ditch your cell phones and try meeting people instead. “Do you know what a hug, a kiss, a handshake is?” the pope asked. It is unclear whether the crowd—recording Pope Francis on, you guessed it, their phones—got the message.