The Transportation Ministry and National Police have predicted that the Idul Fitri mass movement this year will involve 146.5 million people, down almost a quarter from the 2024 mark of 193.6 million. As a consequence, money circulating during this year's holiday season will drop by 12 percent to Rp 138 trillion (US$10 billion) from Rp 157.3 trillion last year, according to the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin). If this forecast is true, this year will see the lowest level of Idul Fitri-related spending since 2021, when Indonesia was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.

A low-key mudik may allow holiday revelers to breathe a sigh of relief, but Prabowo should not take the phenomenon lightly as it could indicate a trust deficit at the grass roots.

People may choose not to travel back home to celebrate Idul Fitri with friends and family in their hometowns because they wish to avoid spending too much in this time of economic hardship. They instead prefer saving their money to anticipate the upcoming business slowdown.

Fares for all modes of transportation have increased during the holiday season. Driving cars for mudik is no cheaper either, as holiday revelers have to buy fuel and meals and pay toll fees on the way to their hometowns.

On Idul Fitri they also need to distribute fitrah (cash gifts) to the children of relatives and neighbors as part of tradition.

Indeed a spending spree always characterizes Idul Fitri, which many cannot afford and therefore they have decided to resist the strong temptation to travel to their hometowns. Many others may even be unable to celebrate the holiday as they have lost their jobs.