Dr. Ma'moun Alshtaiwi

The Middle East is currently undergoing a sensitive phase marked by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, amid rapid regional and international shifts. The conflict between these two countries has persisted for years and takes multiple forms—most notably, indirect confrontations in Syria and Lebanon, as well as cyberattacks and intelligence operations. In this context, legitimate questions arise about the stance of neighboring countries, particularly Jordan, which is geographically located at the heart of this volatile region.

Jordan enjoys strategic relations with the United States and maintains a peace treaty with Israel, while its diplomatic relations with Iran remain limited and unstable. What would Jordan’s position be if a direct confrontation were to break out? This analysis attempts to outline the expected Jordanian strategy in such a complex scenario.

1. Cautious Neutrality as a Consistent Policy

Jordan has long pursued a foreign policy based on positive neutrality and a deliberate avoidance of entanglement in regional rivalries. This reflects the Jordanian leadership’s commitment to preserving domestic stability and avoiding involvement in others’ wars. Should a war between Israel and Iran erupt, Jordan is expected to maintain this approach—refusing to openly side with either party and instead advocating for de-escalation and political solutions.

2. National Security as a Top Priority

Jordan’s internal security and stability will undoubtedly top its list of priorities. Key measures the kingdom may undertake include:
•Tightening surveillance on its northern and eastern borders, particularly with Syria and Iraq, to prevent the infiltration of armed groups or the smuggling of weapons.
•Heightening security alert levels to detect any suspicious activity within or near its territory.
•Prohibiting the use of Jordanian territory as a launchpad for military operations that could provoke a response from either party.

3. Close Coordination with Allies

Jordan has strong strategic ties with the United States and several European countries, and participates in various security and military programs. It also signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. In the event of a regional war, Jordan is likely to:
•Strengthen its security cooperation with the United States and allied countries to ensure it is not harmed by the escalation.
•Closely monitor its airspace and prevent its use by foreign actors without prior coordination.

4. Diplomatic Presence and Mediation Role

Jordan enjoys a balanced diplomatic reputation and maintains good relations with most countries in the region, positioning it well to act as a mediator if requested by regional or international actors. In this context, Jordan is expected to:
•Use international platforms to call for de-escalation and prevent the outbreak of a full-scale war.
•Leverage its ties with Arab and Western parties to help contain the crisis.
•Maintain a balanced political discourse that reinforces its image as a peaceful and rational state.

5. Preparing for Humanitarian and Economic Fallout

The consequences of war would not be limited to military fronts but would also extend to humanitarian and economic dimensions. Jordan would likely face several challenges, including:
•The risk of a new wave of refugees arriving through Syria and Iraq, placing additional pressure on its already limited resources.
•Potential disruption of regional trade routes, especially those linked to Red Sea ports.
•Rising energy and food prices due to global supply chain disruptions.
•Possible domestic unrest if the war impacts Jordanian public opinion or its social fabric.

Jordan’s strategy is built on realistic neutrality, heightened security vigilance, and active diplomacy. While the Kingdom is not a direct party to the Israeli-Iranian conflict, it is well aware that any regional escalation would inevitably affect it. Therefore, maintaining balance, strengthening internal stability, and activating diplomatic tools will form the foundation of Jordan’s approach under the leadership of the Hashemite monarchy in navigating this complex scenario.